I've often commented here that collectors of gold coins should be interested in the spot price of gold, as it determines the base value of their collections; and also that predictions of the future movements in the price of gold, whether up or down, are to be viewed with caution.

This is because many of the factors that determine how the price of gold moves are simply unpredictable: government decisions (particularly in more closed societies with some economic power and big gold reserves), new gold discoveries, gold extraction technology improvements, natural disasters, market or investor panics, and so on.

However, one of the constant themes of gold and precious metal commentators is the concept of 'stagflation' - an economic event which can last for years which combines inflation and economic stagnation. One of the causes of this dire situation is thought to be excessive growth in the money supply. Does this ring any bells?

One respected commentator has written about this very subject in his predictions for 2010, and believes that in the short term (this year) gold will go to $1500 an ounce, and in the long term to $3000 an ounce. Within his article is a warning though that there will be many ups and downs in the price along the way.

But again, since gold coin collectors like us are (or should be) in this game for the long haul, it all looks bright. If you like to believe predictions...

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